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Hawaii Qualification Analysis

Elite Reference Time
Event Name20132014201520162017

Click on an Age Group to show the qualifying coefficients for that age group

Qualifying Coefficients by Age Group
M18 M25 M30 M35 M40 M45 M50 M55 M60 M65 M70 M75 M80
F18 F25 F30 F35 F40 F45 F50 F55 F60 F65 F70 F75 F80

Is race selection is a critical element for the majority of athletes who want to get to Kona? Well, consider this. A 44 year old male ran a sub 9hr IM......... and failed to qualify for Kona 2007*. In a different race another athlete ran a 10h46 IM in the same age group and qualified. So race selection is not just about the times. Other factors like the number of slots available, strength of field, calendar placement and the course profile are also important. But these factors differ, not only from event to event, but also from year to year in the same event. So how can you effectively determine where your best chance for qualification lie? This page attempts to give you the necessary information to make a more effective race selection decision.

The methodology we use is fairly simple. Firstly we determine a baseline performance for each race which we will call the Elite Reference Time (ERT). The ERT is calculated by taking the average time of the first five (5) PRO finishers in the race. Then we look at the time of the last qualifier in an age group. By comparing the time of the last qualifier to the ERT we determine a Qualification Coefficient (QC). For example, our 10h46 IM athlete was 22.3% slower than the ERT and took the last slot in his age group. So the QC for that Age Group in that Race was 22.3. Obviously the higher the QC is, the easier it is to qualify

The tables opposite show the ERTs and the QCs by event by year for each Age Group. All you need to do is select your age group and see if you can get to a race with the highest possible QC. Good Luck

Please note that the races are organised by qualifying season. So the Wisconsin, Florida and Western Australia IMs that were held in 2008 are listed under the season 2009

* The athlete who ran the sub 9 did end up going to Kona in 2007, but he had to run another race to qualify.

Can you figure out the names of the two athletes used in the examples.

  1. Who ran a sub 9h IM and did not qualify?
  2. Who ran a 10h26 IM with a QC if 22.3 in the M40 AG in 2007 and qualified?
Answers to

Before you ask

The following information in being worked on

  1. Data for all AGs Male and Female
  2. A QC based on the number of slots with no roll down. i.e. if there are 3 slots then the time of the 3rd place person in the category instead of the last qualifier.
  3. Data and commentary on the roll down factors (slot acceptance rates)
  4. Data and commentary on the evolution of the required qualifying performances. Is it getting harder to get to Kona?